{
  "canonicalization": "JSON object keys sorted recursively; array order retained; UTF-8",
  "sha256": "0bbad4aeb669131601f58349fac5519bb57095914fd2be415f765e0ad87d4c8c",
  "contract": {
    "id": "SLPA-2026-11-CPI-v1",
    "version": 1,
    "issuedAt": "2026-10-20T21:39:11Z",
    "evidenceCutoff": "2026-10-20T21:15:00Z",
    "preIssueCheckedAt": "2026-10-20T21:38:31Z",
    "timezone": "America/St_Lucia",
    "geography": "Saint Lucia",
    "target": "November 2026 monthly all-item Consumer Price Index, January 2018 = 100",
    "referenceMonth": "2026-11",
    "series": "All Item Index",
    "basis": "January 2018 = 100",
    "unit": "index points (January 2018 = 100)",
    "pointEstimate": 125.9,
    "pointFunctional": "Intended subjective predictive median, anchored to a historical median shift; not a calibrated conditional-median estimate",
    "method": "Judgment-based point forecast with a nonprobabilistic scenario range",
    "confidence": "Low",
    "probability": null,
    "scenarioRange": {
      "lower": 122.5,
      "upper": 130.5,
      "nominalCoverage": null,
      "type": "Nonprobabilistic judgment scenario range",
      "meaning": "Selected softer-price and renewed-pressure paths, not a probability interval, guaranteed bounds or all possible outcomes"
    },
    "latestObservation": {
      "month": "2026-06",
      "value": 124.38
    },
    "observationGapMonths": 5,
    "centralCalculation": {
      "resolvedHistoricalShifts": 74,
      "originStart": "2019-12",
      "originEnd": "2026-01",
      "medianFiveMonthShift": 1.555,
      "unroundedIndex": 125.935,
      "rounding": "One decimal place"
    },
    "scenarioAnchors": {
      "lower": "Recent 38-episode lower historical 10th-percentile shift gives 122.534 when added to June; rounded down to 122.5 without assigning a tail probability",
      "upper": "Largest five-month increase in the broader eligible pool is 5.76 points; June plus that shift gives 130.14, rounded up to 130.5, not a worst-case bound"
    },
    "baselines": {
      "persistence": 124.38,
      "seasonalNaive": 119.38
    },
    "researchDataSha256": "5dc101006d2ec5f87277ef17f041a7d76f393950519ac0475c09c15308d54e3c",
    "sourceUrl": "https://stats.gov.lc/subjects/economy/prices-and-price-indices/cpi-summary-monthly-release-2022-to-2026-q2/",
    "discoveryUrl": "https://stats.gov.lc/subjects/economy/prices-and-price-indices/consumer-price-indicescpi/",
    "resolver": "The first successfully captured eligible CSO revised-summary row explicitly labelled November 2026, All Item Index, on the January 2018 = 100 basis, or an officially linked successor preserving the same series identity. This is the first captured eligible vintage, not necessarily the first public release.",
    "captureStartsAt": "2026-12-01T00:00:00-04:00",
    "captureRule": "Daily checks from 1 December 2026 through the existing afternoon Forecast Lab review in America/St_Lucia. Record actual capture timestamps and missed checks. Save the dated source snapshot and checksum. The operational review time is not a promised release date or guaranteed exact minute.",
    "revisionRule": "The first captured eligible value determines the principal score. Preserve that snapshot and score; archive later values and their diagnostics separately. Conflicting annual pages do not supersede the named revised summary because they yield a more favourable result.",
    "comparabilityRule": "Use the agreed index basis or an officially supplied comparable linked value on that basis. If no comparable value exists, keep the record pending with comparability blocked; never silently substitute a new target.",
    "missingOutcomeRule": "Missing, conflicting or noncomparable evidence remains pending. No arbitrary resolution deadline or opportunistic cancellation applies.",
    "score": "Signed error is forecast minus observed index; absolute error is its magnitude, in index points. Compare the fixed point with same-cutoff persistence 124.38 and seasonal naive 119.38. Evaluate the scenario range by inclusive membership and width only; no nominal-coverage score, WIS or calibration claim.",
    "targetDistinction": "This monthly index level is not a percentage inflation rate or full-year annual-average inflation. The older annual CPI band is a separate unchanged contract.",
    "preIssueCheck": "The named CSO summary and discovery index were rechecked at 21:38 UTC on 20 October and still ended at June 2026 (124.38). Earlier official-domain searches at 21:30 UTC found no newer successor. No November outcome or newer official monthly vintage was verified in those sources or targeted official-domain searches. This does not certify exhaustive publication chronology.",
    "approval": {
      "approvedOn": "2026-10-20",
      "clarificationMinute": "2026-10-20T21:28Z",
      "scope": "This point, scenario range, November target and resolution/scoring terms only; the user confirmed the suggested forecast after correcting transcription typos"
    }
  }
}