{
  "canonicalization": "JSON object keys sorted recursively; array order retained; UTF-8",
  "sha256": "43780d5a5991722f3fcb240b1a71a5e963ecfa8c76b4a1b548bc6cdbab2b07c4",
  "contract": {
    "id": "SLPA-2026-11-16-GASOLINE-v1",
    "version": 1,
    "approvedOn": "2026-10-29",
    "issuedAt": "2026-10-29T16:05:58Z",
    "evidenceCutoff": "2026-10-29T16:05:00Z",
    "timezone": "America/St_Lucia",
    "target": "Saint Lucia's official regulated gasoline retail price at the end of 16 November 2026",
    "targetAt": "2026-11-16T23:59:59-04:00",
    "unresolvedFrom": "2027-01-01T00:00:00-04:00",
    "currency": "XCD",
    "unit": "EC$ per imperial gallon",
    "pointEstimate": 17.25,
    "baseline": {
      "name": "Unchanged-price persistence",
      "value": 17.25,
      "sourceDate": "2026-10-26"
    },
    "method": "Judgment-based point forecast matching the unchanged-price persistence baseline",
    "confidence": "Medium",
    "confidenceMeaning": "Qualitative confidence, not a calibrated probability. Repeated price smoothing supports a short-horizon hold, but discretionary policy and unobserved local import costs prevent high confidence. No demonstrated advantage over persistence.",
    "probability": null,
    "interval": null,
    "resolver": "Use the applicable published Price Control instrument where recovered, supported by authoritative Government/OPM notices. If the instrument cannot be recovered, an explicit official price or unchanged-price statement covering the target cutoff is eligible. Check publication date, effective period, units and superseding notices. Unresolved official contradictions keep the assessment pending; do not select whichever source matches the forecast.",
    "fixedTargetRule": "The target remains 16 November 2026 at 23:59:59 America/St_Lucia even if the expected review is delayed. A later review price is a different outcome.",
    "evidenceRule": "Preserve actual capture time, dated links, source text or snapshot and checksum, applicability reasoning and final conflict check separately from the issued forecast.",
    "score": "Primary score: absolute difference between 17.25 and the verified target-cutoff price, in XCD per imperial gallon. Report the fixed persistence comparator's absolute error alongside it. No probability or interval score; one or two cases do not establish forecasting skill.",
    "missingOutcomeRule": "If target-applicable evidence is missing or conflicts remain, retain pending status through 31 December 2026. Mark unresolved from 1 January 2027, exclude from scored results and stop only these forecast-specific routine checks. Silence is not evidence of an unchanged price, including if the review is postponed.",
    "unitRule": "Use the official imperial-gallon quote; do not derive false precision by converting a rounded litre quote.",
    "preIssueCheck": "Official-domain searches and the current Government/OPM notice were rechecked on 29 October at 16:04–16:05 UTC. The recovered notice establishes the price only through 15 November and expects the next adjustment on 16 November; no target-price announcement was found. The retrieved NPC index ended at S.I. 175; a later applicable price instrument was not recovered. Direct raw Government-page retrieval returned HTTP 500, while web text was accessible. This bounded check is not proof of exhaustive publication coverage.",
    "issuanceRule": "Issue with a real new timestamp after separate approval and a fresh announcement check. Do not issue after a target outcome announcement. Never backdate or modify the October forecast. Any later revised forecast requires separate approval and its own transparent record.",
    "sourceUrl": "https://www.govt.lc/news/government-maintains-fuel-prices-with-increased-subsidy-support",
    "sourceTitle": "Government maintains fuel prices with increased subsidy support",
    "nextCheck": "2026-11-16",
    "finalAssessment": "Any target-day finding before the cutoff is provisional. Final evaluation occurs on the first existing afternoon Lab review after the cutoff, normally 17 November. No second check pipeline or promised exact minute."
  }
}