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  "conditional_claim_arithmetic": {
    "arrivals2019": 262381,
    "arrivals2026": 268842,
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    "arrival_change_percent": 2.462449643838549,
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    "arrivals_vs2024_percent": -1.916130962370577,
    "arrivals_vs2025_percent": 2.0683842456548085
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  "analysis_note": "Observational, mixed monthly source vintages explicitly retained. Synthetic experiments are separate."
}