{ "schema_version": "1.0", "title": "Published estimates extracted from Saint Lucia 2020 HFPS SWIFT report", "created_at": "2026-10-20", "source": { "title": "Poverty projections and profiling from St Lucia High Frequency Phone Surveys using a SWIFT-COVID19 package", "authors_as_printed": "Chen, X., F. Fatima, U. Gray, Xueqi Li, S. C. Mathurin, A. L. Paffhausen, N. Yoshida, and K. Zhang", "year_for_citation": 2021, "date_basis": "No publication date printed; PDF metadata created 2021-04-01, title metadata references 3_29_2021. Official URL upload directory 2024/06 is not the study period.", "official_url": "https://stats.gov.lc/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Poverty-Projections-and-Profiling-from-2-Round-of-St-Lucia-High-Frequency-Phone-Surveys.pdf", "official_landing": "https://stats.gov.lc/publications/", "sha256": "d18677eebc8c97f4136942818895c62b0e18988cf927656c10b96679d092165f", "official_library_byte_identical": true, "pages": 15, "page_convention": "PDF and printed pages coincide.", "extraction": "Manual transcription checked against rendered figures/tables, with text extraction cross-check; not microdata.", "estimation_scope": "National 2020 historical modelled consumption poverty; no 2026 or constituency estimates.", "uncertainty": "Poverty tables label SE and 95% confidence interval but do not fully specify interval construction/variance components. Other chart estimates have no published SE/CI.", "weights": "Report states adjusted weights used throughout. Exact household/person/respondent denominator and weight variable for each figure not fully documented." }, "poverty": [ { "id": "annex1_hbs2016", "period": "HBS2016", "estimate_percent": 26.86, "se_pp": 1.68, "ci95_low_percent": 23.57, "ci95_high_percent": 30.15, "page": 12, "table": "Annex 1", "status": "Reported HBS benchmark", "use": "historical calibration context" }, { "id": "annex1_pre", "period": "Pre-COVID (retrospective model)", "estimate_percent": 23.86, "se_pp": 2.65, "ci95_low_percent": 18.62, "ci95_high_percent": 29.1, "page": 12, "table": "Annex 1", "status": "Conflicts with Annex 2 baseline", "use": "chart only if explicitly labelled Annex 1 and alternate disclosed" }, { "id": "annex1_may", "period": "May 2020", "estimate_percent": 33.25, "se_pp": 3.41, "ci95_low_percent": 26.4, "ci95_high_percent": 40.11, "page": 12, "table": "Annex 1", "status": "Consistent with Annex 2", "use": "historical point estimate with reported interval" }, { "id": "annex1_aug", "period": "July-August 2020 (labelled August)", "estimate_percent": 30.33, "se_pp": 3.33, "ci95_low_percent": 23.66, "ci95_high_percent": 37.01, "page": 12, "table": "Annex 1", "status": "Consistent with Annex 2", "use": "historical point estimate with reported interval" }, { "id": "annex2_pre", "period": "Pre-COVID (retrospective model)", "estimate_percent": 24.04, "se_pp": 3.15, "ci95_low_percent": 17.73, "ci95_high_percent": 30.35, "page": 13, "table": "Table 3.2; repeated Table 3.5 p14", "status": "Unexplained alternate baseline", "use": "disclose beside Annex 1, do not combine or average" }, { "id": "annex2_hbs2016_round2", "period": "HBS2016 benchmark for round 2", "estimate_percent": 26.86, "se_pp": 1.66, "ci95_low_percent": 23.6, "ci95_high_percent": 30.12, "page": 14, "table": "Tables 3.4 and 3.5", "status": "Same mean, different SE/CI from other HBS rows", "use": "audit only" } ], "relative_poverty_ratio": [ { "period": "Pre-COVID", "value": 1, "page": 7, "figure": "1", "unit": "rounded ratio with pre-COVID=1" }, { "period": "May 2020", "value": 1.4, "page": 7, "figure": "1", "unit": "rounded ratio with pre-COVID=1" }, { "period": "August 2020", "value": 1.3, "page": 7, "figure": "1", "unit": "rounded ratio with pre-COVID=1" } ], "gini": [ { "period": "Pre-COVID", "value": 0.416, "page": 7, "figure": "1", "unit": "coefficient", "basis": "imputed consumption expenditure", "uncertainty": "not reported" }, { "period": "May 2020", "value": 0.42, "page": 7, "figure": "1", "unit": "coefficient", "basis": "imputed consumption expenditure", "uncertainty": "not reported" }, { "period": "August 2020", "value": 0.434, "page": 7, "figure": "1", "unit": "coefficient", "basis": "imputed consumption expenditure", "uncertainty": "not reported" } ], "food_security": [ { "id": "ran_out_of_food", "label": "Ran out of food", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 39.5, "poor_HFPS1_percent": 51.2, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 45, "national_HFPS2_percent": 25.7, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": null, "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "hungry_did_not_eat", "label": "Were hungry but did not eat", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 26.3, "poor_HFPS1_percent": 26, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 32.3, "national_HFPS2_percent": 17.7, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": null, "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "whole_day_without_eating", "label": "Went without eating for a whole day", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 15.9, "poor_HFPS1_percent": 19, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 21.8, "national_HFPS2_percent": 12.5, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": null, "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "few_kinds", "label": "Ate only a few kinds of foods", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 53.5, "poor_HFPS1_percent": null, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 55.5, "national_HFPS2_percent": 38.3, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": "Not asked in round 1; not zero", "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "worried_enough_food", "label": "Worried about not having enough food to eat", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 53.4, "poor_HFPS1_percent": null, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 52.4, "national_HFPS2_percent": 35.8, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": "Not asked in round 1; not zero", "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "healthy_preferred_food", "label": "Unable to eat healthy and nutritious/preferred foods", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 48, "poor_HFPS1_percent": null, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 49.3, "national_HFPS2_percent": 35.2, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": "Not asked in round 1; not zero", "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "ate_less", "label": "Ate less than you thought you should", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 40.5, "poor_HFPS1_percent": null, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 43.6, "national_HFPS2_percent": 28, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": "Not asked in round 1; not zero", "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." }, { "id": "skipped_meal", "label": "Had to skip a meal", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 35.3, "poor_HFPS1_percent": null, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 38.4, "national_HFPS2_percent": 24.1, "page": 8, "figure": "3", "question": "During the last 30 days, was there a time when any member in the household...", "unit": "reported percent", "missing_HFPS1_reason": "Not asked in round 1; not zero", "preCOVID_class_time_note": "Pre-COVID is poverty classification, not a pre-pandemic food observation; exact outcome timing for yellow bars not explicit. Five items collected only in round 2.", "publication_use": "Within-round HFPS2 poor versus national preferred; no composite FAO/FIES severity prevalence inferred." } ], "employment": [ { "round": "HFPS1", "group_label_printed": "Poor(Pre-COVID)", "worked_last_week_percent": 29, "stopped_work_percent": 31.2, "not_worked_percent": 39.8, "stopped_work_label": "Worked before March but not in May", "not_worked_label": "Never Employed", "page": 9, "figure": "4", "unit": "reported survey respondent profile percent; not official unemployment rate", "warning": "Stopping-work reference periods differ; model-poor composition can change; don't interpret never-worked labels as verified lifetime history." }, { "round": "HFPS1", "group_label_printed": "Poor(HFPS1)", "worked_last_week_percent": 28.2, "stopped_work_percent": 35.8, "not_worked_percent": 36, "stopped_work_label": "Worked before March but not in May", "not_worked_label": "Never Employed", "page": 9, "figure": "4", "unit": "reported survey respondent profile percent; not official unemployment rate", "warning": "Stopping-work reference periods differ; model-poor composition can change; don't interpret never-worked labels as verified lifetime history." }, { "round": "HFPS1", "group_label_printed": "National(HFPS1)", "worked_last_week_percent": 37.9, "stopped_work_percent": 25.5, "not_worked_percent": 36.6, "stopped_work_label": "Worked before March but not in May", "not_worked_label": "Never Employed", "page": 9, "figure": "4", "unit": "reported survey respondent profile percent; not official unemployment rate", "warning": "Stopping-work reference periods differ; model-poor composition can change; don't interpret never-worked labels as verified lifetime history." }, { "round": "HFPS2", "group_label_printed": "Poor(Pre-COVID)", "worked_last_week_percent": 42.7, "stopped_work_percent": 19.8, "not_worked_percent": 37.4, "stopped_work_label": "Worked in May but not now", "not_worked_label": "Never worked", "page": 9, "figure": "5", "unit": "reported survey respondent profile percent; not official unemployment rate", "warning": "Stopping-work reference periods differ; model-poor composition can change; don't interpret never-worked labels as verified lifetime history." }, { "round": "HFPS2", "group_label_printed": "Poor(HPFS2)", "worked_last_week_percent": 40.2, "stopped_work_percent": 20.8, "not_worked_percent": 39, "stopped_work_label": "Worked in May but not now", "not_worked_label": "Never worked", "page": 9, "figure": "5", "unit": "reported survey respondent profile percent; not official unemployment rate", "warning": "Stopping-work reference periods differ; model-poor composition can change; don't interpret never-worked labels as verified lifetime history." }, { "round": "HFPS2", "group_label_printed": "National(HFPS2)", "worked_last_week_percent": 47.2, "stopped_work_percent": 20.4, "not_worked_percent": 32.4, "stopped_work_label": "Worked in May but not now", "not_worked_label": "Never worked", "page": 9, "figure": "5", "unit": "reported survey respondent profile percent; not official unemployment rate", "warning": "Stopping-work reference periods differ; model-poor composition can change; don't interpret never-worked labels as verified lifetime history." } ], "assistance": [ { "id": "cash", "label": "Cash transfers", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 8.4, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 7.2, "national_HFPS2_percent": 6.6, "page": 10, "figure": "6", "unit": "reported coverage percent", "period": "Round 2, July-August 2020; source says before later programme expansion", "warning": "Categories may overlap. No programme names, amounts, frequency, recall window, SE or CI supplied." }, { "id": "food", "label": "Food", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 10.6, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 8.1, "national_HFPS2_percent": 8.5, "page": 10, "figure": "6", "unit": "reported coverage percent", "period": "Round 2, July-August 2020; source says before later programme expansion", "warning": "Categories may overlap. No programme names, amounts, frequency, recall window, SE or CI supplied." }, { "id": "other_in_kind", "label": "Other in-kind transfers (excluding food)", "poor_preCOVID_class_percent": 0.9, "poor_HFPS2_percent": 0.6, "national_HFPS2_percent": 0.4, "page": 10, "figure": "6", "unit": "reported coverage percent", "period": "Round 2, July-August 2020; source says before later programme expansion", "warning": "Categories may overlap. No programme names, amounts, frequency, recall window, SE or CI supplied." } ], "sample": { "page": 6, "frame_EDs": 179, "total_EDs": 582, "regions": 11, "volunteered_phone_numbers_approx": 1800, "HFPS1_final_sample": 1093, "HFPS1_final_EDs": 141, "HFPS1_dates": [ "2020-05-05", "2020-05-18" ], "HFPS2_final_sample": 900, "HFPS2_dates": [ "2020-07-27", "2020-08-20" ], "HFPS2_followup": "All round 1 respondents contacted; 900 final due to nonresponses", "warning": "Retention arithmetic describes sample counts, not representativeness or an official response-rate definition." }, "source_probability_claims": [ { "value_percent": 85, "page": 7, "label": "Probability of more than 5 percentage-point poverty increase pre-COVID to May", "status": "Source-reported probability; no full variance/covariance/imputation specification" }, { "value_percent": 64, "page": 7, "label": "Prose says 'between May and August'; comparator unclear", "status": "Do not characterize as probability of recovery, a poverty rate or a verified May-to-August increase probability" } ], "audit_flags": [ "Annex1/Annex2 retrospective baseline conflict", "Rounded ratio vs10 percent decline prose", "85/64 probability comparator ambiguity and percent vs percentage-point inconsistency in conclusion", "Figure6 prose conflates food and other in-kind", "Food recall outcomes vs poverty-class labels;3vs8 questions", "Changing model-poor group composition", "Employment category reference periods differ; denominator incompletely documented", "Food/employment variables are also post-COVID poverty-model predictors", "No microdata, imputation draws or reproducible survey variance design supplied", "Historical national estimates, not 2026 current conditions" ], "model_coefficients_file": "model-coefficients.csv", "model_coefficients": [ { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "urban", "coefficient": "0.111073", "std_error": "0.035825", "t_display": "3.1", "p_display": "0.002", "ci95_low": "0.040799", "ci95_high": "0.181347", "HBS2016_mean": "0.7", "HFPS1_mean": "0.71", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "hhsize", "coefficient": "-0.26489", "std_error": "0.015542", "t_display": "-17.04", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "-0.29538", "ci95_high": "-0.2344", "HBS2016_mean": "3.07", "HFPS1_mean": "3.06", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "hhsize2", "coefficient": "1.129226", "std_error": "0.115679", "t_display": "9.76", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.902313", "ci95_high": "1.35614", "HBS2016_mean": "0.13", "HFPS1_mean": "0.13", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "hh_sex", "coefficient": "0.12295", "std_error": "0.034118", "t_display": "3.6", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.056024", "ci95_high": "0.189875", "HBS2016_mean": "0.6", "HFPS1_mean": "0.6", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "Freezer", "coefficient": "0.169498", "std_error": "0.046198", "t_display": "3.67", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.078876", "ci95_high": "0.260119", "HBS2016_mean": "0.13", "HFPS1_mean": "0.25", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "drinking2", "coefficient": "0.208881", "std_error": "0.036974", "t_display": "5.65", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.136353", "ci95_high": "0.281409", "HBS2016_mean": "0.46", "HFPS1_mean": "0.61", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "depend", "coefficient": "-0.2335", "std_error": "0.057815", "t_display": "-4.04", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "-0.34691", "ci95_high": "-0.12009", "HBS2016_mean": "0.33", "HFPS1_mean": "0.33", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "Washing_machine", "coefficient": "0.203321", "std_error": "0.03707", "t_display": "5.48", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.130605", "ci95_high": "0.276037", "HBS2016_mean": "0.56", "HFPS1_mean": "0.64", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "tank", "coefficient": "0.155367", "std_error": "0.040886", "t_display": "3.8", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.075166", "ci95_high": "0.235568", "HBS2016_mean": "0.24", "HFPS1_mean": "0.38", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "tv", "coefficient": "0.125073", "std_error": "0.049406", "t_display": "2.53", "p_display": "0.011", "ci95_low": "0.028159", "ci95_high": "0.221987", "HBS2016_mean": "0.82", "HFPS1_mean": "0.75", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "wall1", "coefficient": "-0.23767", "std_error": "0.053782", "t_display": "-4.42", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "-0.34317", "ci95_high": "-0.13217", "HBS2016_mean": "0.13", "HFPS1_mean": "0.1", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "Elecgas_stove", "coefficient": "-0.22257", "std_error": "0.101749", "t_display": "-2.19", "p_display": "0.029", "ci95_low": "-0.42216", "ci95_high": "-0.02298", "HBS2016_mean": "0.91", "HFPS1_mean": "0.97", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "wall3", "coefficient": "-0.13997", "std_error": "0.036979", "t_display": "-3.79", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "-0.21251", "ci95_high": "-0.06744", "HBS2016_mean": "0.18", "HFPS1_mean": "0.2", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "land_owner1", "coefficient": "0.126037", "std_error": "0.034408", "t_display": "3.66", "p_display": "0", "ci95_low": "0.058543", "ci95_high": "0.193531", "HBS2016_mean": "0.29", "HFPS1_mean": "0.31", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "drinking3", "coefficient": "0.119778", "std_error": "0.081537", "t_display": "1.47", "p_display": "0.142", "ci95_low": "-0.04016", "ci95_high": "0.27972", "HBS2016_mean": "0.08", "HFPS1_mean": "0.08", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "Jewellery", "coefficient": "0.143275", "std_error": "0.042041", "t_display": "3.41", "p_display": "0.001", "ci95_low": "0.060809", "ci95_high": "0.225742", "HBS2016_mean": "0.14", "HFPS1_mean": "0.25", "HFPS2_mean": "" }, { "model": "pre_covid", "page": "13", "table": "3.1", "dependent_variable": "lnexp", "variable": "Refrigerator", 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