Experimental forecast labProspective test · October 2026
A learning lab for Saint Lucia, with a forecasting programme spanning the economy, prices, jobs, public services and political leadership. Each issued forecast names an outcome and explains the evidence and uncertainty. The current record combines November’s consumer-price-index forecast, two separately issued gasoline-price predictions and seven original economic planning bands.
The public forecast register
Issued predictions, research questions and outcomes each have their own place. Follow a target from the original estimate to the evidence that settles it.
Showing 10 of 10 issued forecasts
16 November 2026 · end of day
Confidence: medium, qualitative; no assigned probability or interval
Declared comparatorUnchanged-price persistence: EC$17.25 per imperial gallon
Inspect locked contract SLPA-2026-11-16-GASOLINE-v1November 2026 · monthly all-item index
Confidence: low; scenario range has no assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorPersistence: 124.38; seasonal naive: 119.38
Inspect locked contract SLPA-2026-11-CPI-v126 October 2026 · end of day
Confidence: limited; no assigned probability or interval
Declared comparatorUnchanged-price persistence: EC$17.25 per imperial gallon
Inspect locked contract SLPA-2026-10-26-GASOLINE-v1Calendar year 2026
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorNo-change baseline: 668,086 arrivals
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-02-CRUISECalendar year 2026
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorNo-change component gap: EC$2.220bn
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-02-TRADECalendar year 2026
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorWorld Bank projection: 2.1%
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-01-CPIEnd of calendar year 2026
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorIMF January 2026 projection: 77.2% of GDP
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-01-DEBTFiscal year ending March 2027
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorIMF January 2026 projection excluding estimated disaster cost: 2.5% of GDP
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-01-FISCCalendar year 2026
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorIMF current country projection: 2.0%
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-01-GDPCalendar year 2026
No assigned probability coverage
Declared comparatorNo-change baseline: 426,676 arrivals
Inspect locked contract SLPA-R1-2026-01-STAYLatest issued forecast · Fuel price
per imperial gallon of gasoline
Another hold.
We expect the official regulated price to remain EC$17.25 at the end of 16 November. The target date stays fixed even if the review is delayed.
The fixed unchanged-price benchmark is also EC$17.25. Both will receive the same error. Medium confidence in a hold does not mean proven forecasting skill.
The 26 October notice kept gasoline at EC$17.25 through 15 November, increasing support to EC$1.15 per gallon despite higher import costs. That is direct evidence for another hold, not a guarantee.
Read the current official notice ↗EIA's 28 October release shows a lower recent Gulf Coast gasoline average. If relief reaches local imports, it could reduce the subsidy needed rather than the retail price. This US spot series is not Saint Lucia's landed cost or pricing formula.
Inspect the external price series ↗Repeated smoothing supports this short-horizon call, but gasoline rose in June and September. Fiscal pressure could prompt an increase; cheaper imports could prompt a cut. Medium is a qualitative judgment, not an assigned probability.
Read the September adjustment ↗The October notice gives a current no-subsidy gasoline price of EC$18.40, not a November upper bound. Its next expected adjustment date is 16 November. Lower costs could first reduce fiscal support instead of cutting the pump price.
EIA observations for 5–23 October average US$3.3632 per US gallon, against US$3.8350 for 14 September–2 October: a 12.30% decline across two nonoverlapping 15-observation windows. The 27 October daily value is US$3.101. These equal-sized descriptive windows are not asserted to be Saint Lucia's official reference periods. No retail-price conversion is made.
Freight, insurance, fuel specification, cargo timing, inventory, margins, taxes and the future policy decision remain incompletely observed. The rest of the pre-review period is still ahead. No numerical probability or predictive interval is assigned. Selected official notices establish repeated holds, not a complete historical sample from which to estimate a hold probability.
The October forecast's zero error also matched persistence. It does not establish predictive skill or justify treating a second hold as certain.
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Issued forecast · Consumer prices
All-item CPI · January 2018 = 100
A modest rise from June.
A low-confidence judgment across a five-month observation gap, with a broad scenario range.
Persistence 124.38 · seasonal naive 119.38. Both will be scored against the same captured value.
Index levels, not percentage inflation. These paths carry no assigned probabilities or coverage.
Easing import pressure and retail offsets, with relief measures continuing.
Stronger food, energy and freight transmission despite selective support.
Range width: 8.0 index points. Inclusion awaits the outcome. Outcomes can fall outside these selected paths.
June’s observed index of 124.38 plus the median five-month shift of 1.555 across 74 eligible historical episodes gives 125.935, rounded to 125.9. No invented fuel pass-through increment is added.
Inspect the revised CSO table ↗Food and refined-fuel signals favour retaining the broader historical reference, including the inflationary episode. Subsidies, food concessions, inventories and delayed transmission temper the central call. Current electricity inputs remain incomplete.
Read the fuel-policy evidence ↗The reference was chosen after retrospective analysis; the median adjustment worsened historical validation absolute error. This new call tests a transparent judgment against persistence, with low confidence and the result retained either way.
Inspect the evaluation contract ↓The research cutoff is 20 October 2026 at 21:15 UTC. June remains the latest verified local month; July–October are missing observations, not an assumed flat realised path. This is a five-month observation-gap forecast, not a one-month model supplied with October CPI.
The point expresses an intended subjective predictive median. The broader 74-shift pool covers origins December 2019–January 2026, with the original minimum-history rule. Current external cost pressure motivates retaining the inflationary episode, but does not establish optimal regime weights or a calibrated conditional median.
The lower scenario uses a recent 38-episode historical lower reference of 122.534, rounded down to 122.5. The upper scenario adds the broader pool’s largest five-month increase of 5.76 to June, yielding 130.14, rounded up to 130.5. Different anchors are a declared judgment, not a statistical interval. The point 125.9 is not the range midpoint 126.5.
EIA Gulf Coast diesel and FAO food prices are upstream evidence, not local CPI or measured household pass-through. Food-relief extensions reduce the rationale for a near-term expiry shock; eligible goods and exact retail transmission remain uncertain.
Stronger energy/food transmission or a supply shock could make the call too low; faster easing, hedge protection or retail offsets could make it too high. A later CPI observation may motivate a separately approved new forecast, never a silent edit to this one.
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Forecast in focus · Fuel price
per imperial gallon of gasoline
Unchanged.
We predicted the regulated retail price would hold at the end of 26 October 2026.
The unchanged-price baseline is also EC$17.25. This forecast matches it; the same outcome gives both the same error.
The government's 6 October notice kept gasoline at EC$17.25 for 5–25 October, with EC$0.16 per imperial gallon of support. That is evidence of willingness to smooth costs rather than pass every movement straight to motorists.
Read the government notice ↗Available EIA Gulf Coast gasoline observations eased between September and the partial later window through 14 October. A cut is plausible, but lower costs could instead reduce support or restore taxes while the pump price holds. The proxy does not establish Saint Lucia's landed costs or policy decision.
Inspect EIA's gasoline spot series ↗The point forecast matched the official outcome: zero absolute error. Simply carrying the previous price forward also scored zero. This trial supports keeping policy cushioning in the research, but one result cannot establish forecasting skill or show which part of the reasoning caused the correct call.
See the research method →At the issue-time cutoff, the latest government notice found fixed EC$17.25 per imperial gallon for 5–25 October and identified the next review as 26 October. Its EC$0.16-per-gallon support shows that the retail decision can differ from the unbuffered cost movement.
EIA's 15 October release contains 14 observations averaging US$3.834 per US gallon for 8–25 September and 13 averaging US$3.561 for 28 September–14 October. These are exploratory slices of a US Gulf Coast spot benchmark. The later slice is incomplete; neither is importer-weighted or a verified Saint Lucia pricing formula. Fuel specification, freight, landed costs and the next official reference window remain unverified.
The judgment therefore balances price smoothing against a plausible cut. It matches the simple persistence benchmark rather than presenting an unvalidated cost-model output. A small retrospective replay was reviewed as a diagnostic, not a calibrated probability or evidence of prospective forecasting skill.
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Developing research · Candidate selection
This study examines how party candidate selections change between elections. Its starting point is the completed 2025 general election, not a projected slate for the next election.
Historical candidates are not assumed to stand again. No next-election names, probabilities or predicted slate have been issued in this study.
In the completed 2025 general election, SLP fielded 15 candidates and UWP 17 across 17 constituencies. This is a two-party historical comparison, not the complete ballot and not a next-election projection.
SLP did not nominate a candidate in Castries North or Castries Central. Stephenson King and Richard Frederick contested those seats as independents, respectively. Their political association with SLP does not make them SLP nominees.
Electoral Department candidate records ↗ · OAS slate-count corroboration ↗
| Constituency | SLP candidate in 2025 | UWP candidate in 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Gros Islet | Kenson Casimir | Marcella Johnson |
| Babonneau | John Paul Estaphane | Titus Preville |
| Castries North | No SLP nominee in 2025 | Stephen Fevrier |
| Castries East | Philip J. Pierre | Peter Chiquot |
| Castries Central | No SLP nominee in 2025 | Rosh Clarke |
| Castries South | Ernest Hilaire | Tommy Descartes |
| Anse La Raye and Canaries | Wayne Girard | Dominic Fedee |
| Soufriere | Emma Hippolyte | Herod Stanislas |
| Choiseul | Keithson Charles | Bradley Felix |
| Laborie | Alva Baptiste | Laura Jn. Pierre |
| Vieux Fort South | Danny Butcher | Leanna Johannes-Paul |
| Vieux Fort North | Moses Jn. Baptiste | Calixte Xavier |
| Micoud South | Shanda Harracksingh | Allen Chastanet |
| Micoud North | Jeremiah Norbert | Elisha Norbert |
| Dennery South | Alfred Prospere | Benson Emile |
| Dennery North | Shawn Edward | Bradley Fulgence |
| Castries South East | Lisa Jawahir | Guy Joseph |
Historical baseline checked 29 October 2026. Common public names are used for readability; source-name differences are retained in the notes below.
A nomination is not an election win. Any eventual candidate-selection study needs its own evidence cutoff, outcome definition and treatment of withdrawals, replacements and boundary changes. No such future outcome is estimated here.
The Electoral Department records establish who contested and under which ballot affiliation. Party pages and contemporaneous reporting help reconcile common names; they are not treated as final nomination records for a future election.
The August ledger contracts and their ranges remain fixed. These preserved cards also contain later contextual notes; the ledger below governs evaluation. Their earlier wording describes the archive, while the current programme includes point forecasts, ranges and probabilities across topics. The bands carry no assigned probability coverage.
CSO's preliminary series reports 4.9% real growth in 2024. Official quarterly GDP currently stops at Q2 2025.
Two consecutive monthly stay-over readings outside the planning path
SLPA planning range. Lower edge: an energy-heavy year with weaker tourism. Upper edge: the IMF January 2026 forecast; the current IMF page shows 2.0%.
Preserved card wording, including earlier methodological instructions and later contextual notes. The dated ledger below retains the original evaluation contract; this archive does not define the scope of new forecasts.
| Input | Value | Vintage | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF current country projection | 2.0% | Accessed 9 August 2026 | External estimate | International Monetary Fund ↗ |
| IMF 2026 forecast | 2.3% | January 2026 | External estimate | International Monetary Fund ↗ |
| World Bank 2026 forecast | 1.9% | April 2026 | External estimate | World Bank ↗ |
| World Bank 2025 estimate | 1.3% | March 2026 | External estimate | World Bank ↗ |
The range is conditioned on the positive April signal and added winter airlift. It is not an official tourism forecast.
The EIA July outlook gives US$82 and the World Bank June outlook gives US$94. The vintage spread is retained rather than silently selecting one path.
No completion-rate assumption is made until public project execution data are available.
Use the official 2024 level as the last annual actual, place published forecasts beside it, and change the planning range only when tourism, quarterly output, energy or capital-execution signals materially move.
Interpretation noteDo not average conflicting 2025 estimates into a made-up actual.
These archived lags were measured to 9 August 2026. They describe the earlier evidence set, rather than current data availability. The interpretation column explains how dated evidence can inform new forecasts.
| Series | Reference period ends | Lag | State | Forecast effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual GDP | 2024-12-31 | About 19 months | stale | 2024 is the last actual in this archived evidence set; later figures are identified by source, vintage and status as estimates or forecasts. |
| Quarterly GDP | 2025-06-30 | About 13 months | stale | A GDP nowcast is identified as an SLPA estimate, with its target period, data cutoff and assumptions, separately from official releases. |
| Consumer Price Index | 2025-12-31 | About 7 months | aging | Energy and food drivers support inflation forecasts with explicit local pass-through assumptions; observed Saint Lucia CPI remains separately identified. |
| Labour Force Survey | 2026-03-31 | About 4 months | aging | The Q1 reading is a dated input. Any current or future unemployment estimate states its target period and treatment of source comparability. |
| Stay-over arrivals | 2026-04-30 | About 3 months | aging | The April reading is an early input to the annual estimate; later comparable months provide evidence for a separately approved revision. |
| Merchandise trade | 2025-12-31 | About 7 months | aging | Trade forecasts state their target period and definitions and retain the published sign-correction note. |
| Retail fuel-price cycle | Decision published 2026-08-03 | 6 days; prices effective through 23 August | current cycle | The official price carries an effective-through date. A prediction of the next decision is separately labelled and later tested against the published outcome. |
| Reservoir and water-system operations | Dam elevation 2026-01-22; local service stress 2026-05 | About 6.5 months for elevation; about 3 months for the later local stress report | data gated | Service-stress, reservoir-level and supply-reliability forecasts carry separate targets and explicit treatment of gaps in operating data. |
These dated inputs from earlier Lab editions retain their reference periods. New releases are reviewed alongside them, making the age and comparability of the evidence visible.
The early-year official signal supports the stay-over range, but four months cannot resolve the full-year path.
The updated external energy path keeps pressure on transport, electricity, food costs and subsidy choices. It is not a local price forecast.
This Q1 reading is a dated labour-market input. Forecasts state how they handle the 19th-to-21st-ICLS methods transition, conflicting tables and the comparability of subsequent quarters.
This is a budget plan, not an outturn. Revenue, capital delivery and support costs decide the realised path.
The gap narrowed from 2024, but higher energy and import-intensive investment could reverse part of that movement.
The basin outlook is not a Saint Lucia landfall forecast. CariCOF also keeps drought, humid heat and isolated flash flooding in the same planning window.
Forecast updates: comparable new evidence and the recorded review triggers inform a proposed revision. Individual editorial approval creates a new dated version while the original stays fixed.
News, public discussion and visitor language are research inputs for target-specific forecasts. Tests compare their contribution with official indicators and simple baselines, with population coverage and language-specific accuracy reported.
The current work defines source coverage, English and Kwéyòl evaluation, privacy safeguards and prospective tests. Any published measure will identify the population and activity it represents.
Reporting about prices, jobs, tourism, business activity and public services can reveal changing expectations. Reporting tone and the underlying event are separate inputs.
Lawfully accessible public discussion can reveal attention, expectations and uncertainty. Source concentration and reposting are accounted for in research design.
Visitor-facing search and travel language can help explain potential demand. Its contribution to short-horizon arrival estimates is tested separately from resident sources.
A future published language measure will document the following evidence. This is the research design, rather than a report of completed validation.
Recent central-bank research finds that soft data can improve some short-horizon forecasts, but it can also create false alarms. The research question is whether a carefully evaluated signal adds out-of-sample value beyond official data.
These conditional scenarios explore how effects can unfold and which observations would change the analysis. RIPPLE-4 connects the mechanisms; Sovereign Option Theory highlights policy choices and commitments. The paths are research illustrations, separate from issued predictions.
Imported energy remains costly while government continues to smooth part of the retail shock.
Higher costs can weaken demand, tax receipts and the debt path
Positive early-2026 stay-over growth is followed by added British Airways winter capacity.
Local wages, procurement and taxes determine the national gain
The FY2026/27 Estimates plan a large programme while delivery capacity and financing remain constrained.
Operating costs, debt service and maintenance shape the future balance sheet
Rainfall can improve while catchment inflow, storage and distribution reliability remain weak.
Emergency works and lost activity create fiscal and economic pressure
Calendar reviewed 29 October 2026. Scheduled dates are distinct from confirmed outcomes. Undated watches stay undated until a primary source supplies a date.
UK monetary conditions are one input to travel demand and visitor purchasing power.
The decision, bookings and airlift evidence jointly inform the UK-demand outlook.
The release calendar lists 6 November after the latest 2 October publication.
Category-level vintages and lags connect global food prices with local inflation forecasts; each measure retains its own definition.
The monthly external outlook supplies a dated energy input for a new research run.
The release and its assumptions inform local retail-price forecasts through explicit pass-through, tax, subsidy and timing assumptions.
The Government's 26 October notice explicitly names 16 November as the expected next adjustment after the 26 October–15 November pricing period.
This is an official review-date watch, not a prediction of the next price. Any new numerical forecast requires its own approved, dated record.
The fiscal and tourism risk calendar changes after the formal season, though hazards can occur outside it.
The seasonal calendar changes after November, while recovery costs, water-system effects and hazards outside the season remain relevant.
These dates have passed as of 29 October 2026. Their inclusion records the earlier calendar, not verification that a release occurred or a forecast resolved.
The outlook assumes severe Strait of Hormuz constraints through August and puts Brent near US$85 per barrel in Q3 and US$78 in Q4. This raises Saint Lucia's external energy-pressure screen.
The global energy outlook informs local pump-price, electricity and fiscal forecasts through explicit assumptions about landed costs, pricing rules, taxes, subsidies and timing.
The last published gasoline and diesel price was EC$17.25 per imperial gallon through 4 October; a later decision remains a publication watch.
A fuel-price prediction is distinct from the official decision; the published outcome later resolves the forecast and informs the subsidy and inflation analysis.
Regional credit, deposits and monetary conditions help test the domestic-demand and financing picture.
Each monetary series carries its Saint Lucia reference period and release vintage so readers can compare like with like.
A new debt stock may narrow the published range, but only if its institutional boundary and GDP denominator are stated.
Debt estimates are compared on the same institutional boundary and GDP denominator, with each revision dated.
Canadian rates and the Canadian dollar can influence travel demand and spending from a key visitor market.
The decision and exchange-rate response help explain visitor purchasing power and travel demand; tourism outcomes are measured separately.
Global food prices are an upstream input to Saint Lucia's imported food and household-cost path.
Category-level global food prices inform local inflation forecasts through stated import, retail and timing assumptions; observed Saint Lucia inflation remains separately labelled.
The EC dollar's fixed US-dollar rate transmits US monetary conditions into regional financing and exchange-rate competitiveness.
The rate decision informs financing and competitiveness forecasts. Any exchange-rate regime question has its own target, horizon, evidence and uncertainty.
UK rates, growth and sterling can affect travel demand and the spending power of a major visitor market.
UK rates inform demand forecasts alongside bookings and the conversion of scheduled seats into passengers.
A new regional release may change the output baseline and the denominator used in fiscal and debt ratios.
The release vintage and CSO definitions are visible in any new, individually approved forecast version; the original remains intact.
The published schedule adds 51,000 seats across the 2026/27 winter season.
Scheduled seats set capacity; forecasts of arrivals use explicit booking, occupancy and passenger-conversion assumptions that can be tested against later results.
The government's 6 October notice identifies 5–25 October as the current pricing period and expects the next adjustment on 26 October.
The official decision and its effective period resolve the fuel-price forecast and inform retail-price and subsidy analysis.
US monetary conditions affect regional financing and exchange-rate competitiveness through the EC dollar's fixed US-dollar rate.
The published decision and guidance become external evidence for financing and competitiveness forecasts.
Canadian rates and the Canadian dollar inform the evidence on a major visitor-source market.
The decision is an input to source-market forecasts, while observed travel demand and spending provide distinct outcomes.
Older seasonal outlooks and monthly readings below retain their stated vintage. Their values are not presented as current observations.
The listed August and September release dates are now historical. Current debt, monetary and national-accounts vintages need individual verification.
The reference period, release date and Saint Lucia coverage determine comparability with the frozen inputs.
The live NOAA page still carries the 6 August outlook. It is a basin-wide seasonal assessment; current conditions are tracked through official advisories.
The basin-wide outlook provides seasonal context. Local impact forecasts use local hazard evidence and a separately defined target; a single event can still dominate the year.
A single event can change output, tourism, water operations, public spending and debt at once.
System-specific forecasts, official watches, warnings and impact reports provide local hazard evidence alongside basin-wide seasonal context.
The earlier Lab edition recorded August's EC$0.274 per kWh adjustment. The current monthly value has not been verified in this review.
An electricity-adjustment forecast states its target month and fuel-purchase lag; the LUCELEC publication supplies the outcome. The exact release day remains unverified.
An October–December newsletter was published on 6 October. Its Saint Lucia categories need extraction and review before entering the evidence set.
Drought categories inform water-pressure forecasts alongside the operating observations needed for reservoir and service estimates.
The survey is intended to update poverty measures and CPI weights after data collection ended in April 2026.
Published survey methods and results provide the basis for updated CPI weights and household-pressure estimates.
New household and child indicators can change the social baseline used in policy scenarios.
Published MICS results enter the evidence as observed conditions, with their actual release and reference dates shown.
A boundary-aware reconstruction of the FY2026/27 budget plan, December 2025 public debt and selected separately audited public entities. It is not a consolidated sovereign balance sheet or an audit opinion.
Public debt stock. EC$5.132bn of central-government debt plus EC$308.3m of guaranteed debt. Guaranteed debt is already included, not added again.
Official Estimates envelope. The official financial plan includes fiscal-balance spending, principal repayment and refunds. It is not actual spending or the deficit.
Net revenue and grants. Positive revenue and grants after EC$10.014m in refunds. This is not cash already collected.
Planned overall deficit. Net revenue and grants minus fiscal-balance spending. Adding EC$140.0m of principal gives EC$352.4m in planned gross financing.
Government payables. The Economic and Social Review reports this stock outside public debt. The underlying creditor and ageing ledger is not published with the summary.
CIU cash and cash equivalents. CIU cash is a separate entity stock, not unrestricted Treasury cash and not a measure of total CIP wealth.
| Item | Value | Period | Status | Boundary note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | EC$7.049bn | 2024 | Official preliminary | Latest CSO annual current-price estimate, marked preliminary, and the scale denominator for historical ratios. | |
| Public debt stock | EC$5.440bn | 31 December 2025 | Official actual | EC$5.132bn of central-government debt plus EC$308.3m of guaranteed debt. Guaranteed debt is already included, not added again. | |
| Official Estimates envelope | EC$2.1888bn | FY2026/27 | Budget plan | The official financial plan includes fiscal-balance spending, principal repayment and refunds. It is not actual spending or the deficit. | |
| Net revenue and grants | EC$1.826bn | FY2026/27 plan | Budget plan | Positive revenue and grants after EC$10.014m in refunds. This is not cash already collected. | |
| Planned overall deficit | EC$212.4m | FY2026/27 plan | Budget plan | Net revenue and grants minus fiscal-balance spending. Adding EC$140.0m of principal gives EC$352.4m in planned gross financing. | |
| Foreign reserve cover | 3.6 months of imports | IMF 2026 projection | External estimate | An external-buffer estimate for the currency union context. It is not a central-government cash balance. | |
| Government payables | EC$20.4m | December 2025 | Official actual | The Economic and Social Review reports this stock outside public debt. The underlying creditor and ageing ledger is not published with the summary. | |
| CIU cash and cash equivalents | EC$259.9m | 31 March 2025 audited entity account | Official actual | CIU cash is a separate entity stock, not unrestricted Treasury cash and not a measure of total CIP wealth. |
Revenue, primary spending, interest, capital execution, the deficit, financing and payables describe different parts of the central-government position.
Airport, utility and other public-corporation obligations sit alongside central-government accounts, with their institutional boundaries identified.
Programme revenue, programme cash, due-diligence fees and transfers to government are distinct measures.
Social-security assets belong to the social-insurance balance sheet and are distinguished from central-government cash.
Guarantees, public-private partnerships and disaster facilities are identified separately, including whether an obligation has been called.
A sovereign net-worth estimate states its public-sector boundary, asset valuations and liability treatment. The visible cash and debt figures here describe only part of that position.
Labour markets, electricity, water, public finance and tourism value are part of the programme. These cards pair previously recorded evidence gaps with an affirmative research approach. Each proposed estimate can disclose missing data, assumptions and uncertainty; the evidence priorities below are not topic exclusions.
Earlier evidence review: Q1 2026 Table 2 reports national unemployment of 12.1%. Table 1’s 18.2% precision statistics describe an unidentified population with different counts, so they do not establish uncertainty for the national rate. Annual 2025 sources contain separate conflicts. The April standards announcement does not identify the first production quarter.
Unemployment is a forecast target, with the estimate tied to a stated labour-force definition and explicit treatment of conflicting source tables.
Research approach: A labour-market forecast can state a future unemployment rate, with assumptions, a comparable baseline and a documented treatment of the methods transition.
Earlier evidence review: LUCELEC posts an August 2026 fuel cost adjustment of EC$0.274 per kWh, based on fuel purchased in the prior month. A complete machine-readable history was not located.
A six-month electricity forecast can estimate a tariff or household bill, with customer class, consumption and fuel-cost assumptions made explicit.
Research approach: Tariff and bill estimates distinguish the base tariff, fuel adjustment, usage and pass-through timing, with uncertainty around each.
Earlier evidence review: The last direct John Compton Dam point found was about 332 feet on 22 January 2026. Later reporting describes severe local inflow stress, while CariCOF provides categorical drought evidence.
Reservoir elevation and water-supply reliability are forecast questions, with dated observations, rainfall assumptions and operational uncertainty kept visible.
Research approach: Water-stress indicators, reservoir estimates and service-reliability forecasts describe different outcomes and carry their own definitions and tests.
Earlier evidence review: The tabled FY2024/25 report is described as EC$402.2m revenue, but applications, approvals, route mix and transfers can shift sharply.
CIP forecasts distinguish programme revenue, cash receipts and transfers to government, and show how applications, approvals and route mix affect the estimate.
Research approach: Programme revenue, cash and central-government transfers have separate forecast targets and resolution sources.
Earlier evidence review: Stay-over arrivals are available, while current visitor nights, spend, ownership and local procurement are incomplete.
Tourism-value forecasts connect arrivals with visitor nights, spending, imported inputs and local income, with assumptions shown where evidence is incomplete.
Research approach: Gross receipts, imported inputs and retained local value are reported as separate estimates.
Earlier evidence review: Debt, budget flows, selected cash and some project liabilities are visible, but the asset and contingent-liability perimeter is incomplete.
Public-sector net-worth estimates state the asset and liability boundary, valuation method and uncertainty, including items still awaiting verification.
Research approach: Each estimate shows its audited and estimated components, omitted items and reconciliation to the published public accounts.
These original contracts preserve the target, issued band, evidence cutoff and resolution rules fixed for the August rounds. Historical wording applies to those issues, not to the scope or estimate types of the current programme.
The first round was issued 9 August 2026. The trade and cruise expansion was issued 10 August 2026. Each used evidence available through its stated cutoff in Saint Lucia time. Later evidence may create a dated revision, but it cannot replace either original.
Issued 9 August 2026 · evidence cutoff 9 August 2026 · 5 contracts
| Forecast contract | Frozen planning band | Point estimate | Comparator | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLPA-R1-2026-01-GDPReal GDP growth in 2026Calendar year 2026 | 0.5% to 2.3% | Withheld | IMF current country projection: 2.0% | open |
| SLPA-R1-2026-01-CPIAnnual-average inflation in 2026Calendar year 2026 | 1.5% to 3.5% | Withheld | World Bank projection: 2.1% | open |
| SLPA-R1-2026-01-STAYStay-over arrivals in 2026Calendar year 2026 | 430,900 to 452,300 | Withheld | No-change baseline: 426,676 arrivals | open |
| SLPA-R1-2026-01-FISCOverall fiscal deficit in 2026/27Fiscal year ending March 2027 | 2.5% to 3.5% of GDP | Withheld | IMF January 2026 projection excluding estimated disaster cost: 2.5% of GDP | open |
| SLPA-R1-2026-01-DEBTPublic debt at end-2026End of calendar year 2026 | 75% to 80% of GDP | Withheld | IMF January 2026 projection: 77.2% of GDP | open |
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Issued 10 August 2026 · evidence cutoff 10 August 2026 · 2 contracts
| Forecast contract | Frozen planning band | Point estimate | Comparator | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLPA-R1-2026-02-TRADEMerchandise trade gap in 2026Calendar year 2026 | EC$2.17bn to EC$2.48bn | Withheld | No-change component gap: EC$2.220bn | open |
| SLPA-R1-2026-02-CRUISECruise-passenger arrivals in 2026Calendar year 2026 | 668,100 to 768,300 | Withheld | No-change baseline: 668,086 arrivals | open |
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Original August contract. Its historical scoring restrictions apply to this issued band; new forecasts use their own approved terms.
Preserved source entries are shown below with their stated vintages; some card context was updated after the original issue. Live links may now show later data. Operating review sources appear first. Source grade A means a primary official record. Grade B means a multilateral estimate, research source or clearly labelled public-record reconstruction. Status and vintage still control how each figure may be used.
The official panel holds gasoline at EC$17.25 per imperial gallon for 26 October through 15 November. This eligible post-target evidence resolves the fixed 26 October gasoline forecast after the target day closes.
Government of Saint Lucia ↗A · Published 6 October 2026 · checked 20 October 2026Historical issue-time evidence: the 5–25 October pricing period preceded the assessed 26 October forecast. The later outcome is recorded separately.
Government of Saint Lucia ↗A · Published 6 October 2026 · checked 20 October 2026Publication date verified; the Saint Lucia categories still need extraction and review before reuse.
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology ↗A · 2024 preliminaryOfficial preliminary real-growth baseline. The table reports 4.9% growth in 2024 and marks the year preliminary.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · 2024 preliminaryOfficial preliminary annual baseline. The linked current-price table reports EC$7,049.1m nominal GDP in 2024.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · Through Q2 2025Latest public official quarterly output baseline located.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · Revised April 2026Official revised annual series reports 0.7% annual-average inflation in 2025.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · Data collection May 2025 to April 2026The survey is intended to update poverty measures and CPI weights. No results date is published.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · Q1 2026SLPA uses the 12.1% Table 2 rate. Table 1 reports an incompatible 18.2% rate and different population totals, and participation values vary within the report. CSO clarification is needed. The quarter is not interchangeable with the annual 2025 average.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · 2025 annualDetailed table reports 12.6% for 2025 while the CSO homepage displays a different headline value.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · 20 April 2026Confirms a planned transition from 19th- to 21st-ICLS standards after a pilot. It does not publish a bridge estimate or the first production quarter under the new method.
Government of Saint Lucia · Department of the Public Service ↗A · 2025 annualOfficial baseline for arrival episodes. The 2025 table reports 426,676 stay-over, 668,086 cruise and 41,349 yacht arrivals.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · April 2026Reports 40,752 April stay-over arrivals, up 8.5% year on year, 3.7% stay-over growth for January to April, 34% cruise growth and 44% yacht growth in April.
Saint Lucia Tourism Authority ↗A · Service begins 25 October 2026Adds 51,000 scheduled seats across winter 2026/27. Scheduled seats are not observed visitors.
Saint Lucia Tourism Authority via Government of Saint Lucia ↗A · 2025 annualSLPA derives the EC$2.220bn gap magnitude from components because some published balance signs are inconsistent.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗A · FY2026/27 budget estimatesPrimary budget book. It supports the detailed revenue, spending, deficit and financing reconstruction, but records plans rather than outturn.
Government of Saint Lucia, Department of Finance ↗A · FY2025/26 preliminary and year-end outlookLatest execution view located. Revenue is preliminary, spending includes a year-end outlook and payables are reported separately from debt.
Government of Saint Lucia, Department of Finance ↗A · Debt stock at 31 December 2025Reports EC$5.440bn in public debt, comprising EC$5.132bn central-government debt and EC$308.3m guaranteed debt, with instrument, maturity and refixing detail.
Government of Saint Lucia, Debt and Investment Unit ↗A · FY2026/27Lists a motion to adopt EC$2,188,765,900 in Estimates. The notice does not by itself establish that an Appropriation Act was enacted.
Parliament of Saint Lucia ↗A · FY2026/27Government summary reports payables of about EC$20m by December 2025.
Government of Saint Lucia ↗B · Published February 2026Reports a 74.5% public-debt ratio estimate for 2025.
Eastern Caribbean Central Bank ↗B · 14 January 2026Provides dated macroeconomic and fiscal estimates and forecasts. Keep its vintage visible.
International Monetary Fund ↗B · Accessed 9 August 2026The current page displayed 2.0% real GDP growth and 2.5% consumer-price growth for 2026. The access date is frozen because the page can update.
International Monetary Fund ↗B · April 2026 macro outlookEstimates 2025 growth at 1.3%, 2026 growth at 1.9%, FY2025/26 debt at 77.9% of GDP and 2026 inflation at 2.1%.
World Bank ↗B · 11 June 2026External scenario assumes Brent averages US$94 in 2026. It is not a Saint Lucia price forecast.
World Bank ↗A · 7 July 2026 outlookForecasts Brent at US$82 per barrel on average in 2026. This is an external energy path, not a Saint Lucia fuel-price forecast.
US Energy Information Administration ↗A · Released 7 August 2026The index was 131.1, up 0.6% month to month and 1.0% year to year, with mixed category movements. It is not observed Saint Lucia CPI.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ↗B · April 2025Documents collection and compilation gaps affecting CIP, goods, travel and direct-investment statistics.
International Monetary Fund ↗A · 3 to 23 August 2026Gasoline and diesel were EC$16.75 per imperial gallon for 3 to 23 August. A successor notice following the scheduled 24 August review had not been located at the 28 August check.
Government of Saint Lucia ↗A · 22 January 2026Reports John Compton Dam near 332 feet and below spillway at that date.
Water and Sewerage Company Inc. ↗A · May 2026Reports local demand of 1.2m gallons per day and inflow at 20% of capacity. This is not a national reservoir reading.
Water and Sewerage Company Inc. ↗B · 2026 seasonal outlookRegional outlook indicates long-term drought could persist in Saint Lucia while flood risk also remains possible.
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology ↗A · 6 August 2026Assigns 75% probability to a below-normal basin season, 20% to near-normal and 5% to above-normal. The seasonal basin outlook does not estimate a Saint Lucia landfall probability.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ↗A · Checked 12 August 2026Historical archive link. NOAA's live outlook page carries the 6 August 2026 update used in the current signal room.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ↗A · Recurring Atlantic seasonUse for the seasonal calendar only. It does not predict a Saint Lucia landfall.
NOAA National Hurricane Center ↗A · Year ended 31 March 2025Audited entity account. CIU cash, liabilities and flows remain separate from a consolidated central-government balance sheet.
Citizenship by Investment Unit, Saint Lucia ↗B · FY2024/25Use as reported public-record detail until the primary annual-report PDF is directly inspectable.
Public reporting based on the FY2024/25 tabled report ↗A · 2026 scheduleOfficial dates for the global energy outlook used as an external input, including 11 August 2026.
US Energy Information Administration ↗A · Released 11 August 2026 · forecast completed 6 AugustForecasts Brent near US$85 per barrel in Q3 2026, US$78 in Q4 and US$69 on average in 2027. It is an external scenario, not a Saint Lucia retail-price forecast.
US Energy Information Administration ↗A · Accessed 9 August 2026Official regional release dates. Product dates do not guarantee a same-day CSO webpage update.
Eastern Caribbean Central Bank ↗A · 2026 schedulePrimary calendar for a major Saint Lucia visitor-source market.
Bank of Canada ↗A · 2026 scheduleGlobal upstream food-price signal. It is not a local CPI observation.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ↗A · 2026 schedulePrimary schedule for US policy decisions relevant to the EC dollar's fixed US-dollar rate.
US Federal Reserve ↗A · 2026 schedulePrimary schedule for a major Saint Lucia visitor-source market.
Bank of England ↗A · August 2026Official page reports an August 2026 fuel cost adjustment of EC$0.274 per kWh.
Saint Lucia Electricity Services Limited ↗A · Current method noteExplains that the monthly adjustment reflects fuel purchased in the prior month.
Saint Lucia Electricity Services Limited ↗A · 30 July 2026Regional guidance places Saint Lucia’s long-term drought at an imminent end-November horizon while retaining humid-heat and isolated flood risk. It is not a national alert or reservoir-level forecast.
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology ↗A · July 2026 progress noticeA progress notice, not a results release or a dated publication promise.
Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia ↗Public method
The Lab labels observations, research questions, scenarios and predictions separately. Each issued forecast fixes its evidence cutoff, horizon and resolution rule; its original scoring terms govern evaluation after the outcome.
A confirmed date, rule or scheduled release, identified by its source.
An estimate of the present or recent past before an official result is released.
A dated hard or soft indicator that informs the evidence behind a forecast.
A dated prediction for a defined future outcome, expressed as a point estimate, range or probability.
An estimate that applies only if the named assumptions hold.
A coherent set of assumptions and consequences used to explore possible futures, labelled separately from an issued prediction.
The contract identifies the unit, geography, horizon and timezone, evidence cutoff, authoritative outcome source and treatment of missing or conflicting evidence. It also specifies whether evaluation uses the first release or a revised figure.
Reference-class frequencies, the last observation, seasonal patterns, recent trends and relevant official projections provide candidate baselines. Comparisons use the same target, horizon and issue date.
Each forecast explains the role of expert judgment, statistical models and AI-assisted analysis. Where independent human and model estimates are compared, their separate origins and dependencies are recorded.
Candidate combinations are evaluated against simple methods in rolling tests. Probabilities across exhaustive outcomes sum consistently, nested events agree, and numerical quantiles remain ordered.
Each prediction receives individual editorial approval. Its published version stays fixed; an approved revision explains what changed and why. Initial, fixed lead-time and latest eligible estimates remain distinct in evaluation.
Mean squared distance between the stated probability and the outcome. Lower is better. A constant 50 percent forecast scores 0.25.
mean (probability − outcome)²Absolute error measures the distance between an estimate and its outcome in the stated unit, as in the gasoline contract. Across a series, MASE scales mean absolute error by in-sample naive or seasonal-naive change. Signed mean error shows high or low bias.
test MAE ÷ in-sample naive scaleDeclared numerical distributions use weighted interval score. Nominal coverage and width are reported beside it. The archived August R1 bands have no nominal coverage, so their inclusion measure is descriptive.
proper interval loss + diagnosticsPerformance is compared with matched baselines. The formula below applies only to paired, positive, lower-is-better losses such as Brier score, not to bias or coverage.
1 − model score ÷ baseline scoreDefinitions, methods and sample cards.
Two August rounds remain available under their issue-time terms.
Approved predictions are followed through to outcomes, errors and lessons.
Sustained out-of-sample results beat declared baselines with useful coverage.
The August R1 issues used planning bands without point estimates or assigned probability coverage. Those historical contracts retain their original scoring rules. The current programme includes point forecasts, ranges and probabilities; each is evaluated according to its declared form. Performance is reported by target and horizon, with uncertainty around aggregate scores.
Prospective unresolved questions limit answer leakage. Expert forecasters outperformed the leading LLM in the initial study.
Open source 02 · Peer-reviewed · NeurIPS 2024Dated retrieval and ensembling improved machine forecasts. A validation-chosen human and machine aggregate performed best on this binary-event test.
Open source 03 · Peer-reviewed · ICLR 2026Revised webpages, unreliable date filters, question selection and leaked market information can make retrospective AI forecasts look better than they were.
Open source 04 · Peer-reviewed · ACM TiiS 2025A preregistered study found useful human-assistant gains on six numerical questions. The narrow task set and outlier sensitivity limit generalisation.
Open source 05 · Emerging research · 2026 preprintTested models produced intervals that were too narrow. None reached the requested 90 percent coverage rate.
Open source 06 · Emerging research · 2026 preprintEvolveCast finds model updates can be inconsistent or too conservative. Retrieval alone is not a validated belief-updating rule.
Open source 07 · Peer-reviewed · NeurIPS 2024Across the tested methods and datasets, removing or replacing the pretrained language model often improved results. This supports testing numerical methods against simpler alternatives.
Open source 08 · Peer-reviewed · International Journal of ForecastingAcross 100,000 series, combinations and hybrid methods dominated the strongest entries. Simple baselines remained essential.
Open source 09 · Peer-reviewed · Psychological ScienceProbability training, reference classes, team collaboration and selection of previously strong forecasters improved judgmental performance.
Open source 10 · Peer-reviewed · Journal of the American Statistical AssociationProper scores reward honest probabilities and intervals that balance coverage with useful precision.
Open source 11 · Peer-reviewed · PLOS Computational BiologyWeighted interval score combines calibration and sharpness for numerical distributions. Coverage and width remain useful separate diagnostics.
Open source 12 · Peer-reviewed · International Journal of ForecastingMASE scales test error by the mean in-sample naive or seasonal-naive change, enabling comparison across numerical series.
Open source 13 · Peer-reviewed · International Journal of ForecastingRolling forecast origins and repeated test periods provide a stronger test than one convenient historical holdout.
Open source 14 · Peer-reviewed · Journal of EconometricsReal-time vintages identify what was available at each historical forecast date and help reveal revision leakage.
Open source 15 · Peer-reviewed · ICLR 2025Coherence checks examine complements, exhaustive outcomes, nested events and ordered numerical quantiles.
Open source 16 · Official policy guidance · 2025Scenarios explore plausible paths, signposts and policy options. They are not automatically forecasts or mutually exclusive outcomes.
Open source 17 · Central-bank research · 2026Soft indicators improved some short-horizon models but also produced false alarms. Matched tests beside hard data reveal their incremental value.
Open source 18 · Central-bank research · BIS IFCNews tone helped selected short-horizon targets but did not improve most broader output components. The results show why usefulness is assessed by target.
Open source 19 · Peer-reviewed · NAACL 2024Creole-language performance cannot be assumed from English models. Local annotation and language-specific evaluation are required.
Open source 20 · Official analytics guidance · United NationsThe guidance addresses privacy-by-design, representativeness, manipulation risk and potential harm across the data lifecycle.
Open sourceForecasts contribute a clearly labelled view of what may come next. Observed facts, assumptions and predictions stay distinct, while outcomes, errors and baseline comparisons show how the methods perform.
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